The seemingly endless supply of high-rise apartment and condo buildings going up in downtown Bethesda may help mask the fact that Montgomery County faces a housing shortage, but it’s real. Teachers wanting to live near their schools, immigrants who have recently arrived in the U.S., young families looking to buy their first homes, and people moving from Washington, D.C., all hope to settle here, data and reporting show. They are vying against seniors who sold homes where they raised their kids and want to downsize to an apartment or condo they can afford on a fixed income.
The housing scarcity exists at nearly every price point, but it’s most painfully felt by those at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum.
County leaders and planners have come up with dozens of proposals and programs to address the situation, but three factors stand out to us as potentially the most impactful on housing: Thrive 2050, the Purple Line and legislation on rent stabilization. We explain what they may mean for you.
Thrive 2050
What is it?
Montgomery County’s new 126-page “vision plan” for the next 30 years. It’s filled with recommendations for land use, zoning, housing and transportation that supporters hope will lead to more racial equity in the county, along with more environmental sustainability.
What will it do?
On its own, Thrive doesn’t change zoning or any other laws, but “it does provide clear recommendations that now have to, in the next phase, be acted upon,” says at-large Councilmember Gabe Albornoz, a key supporter of the plan who was council president when it was unanimously approved in October. He says the county was overdue for an “overarching guide” to connect its neighborhood-based master plans into something “cohesive.” “Growth is inevitable,” he says. “The question is: How do we manage it?”
High on Thrive’s list of priorities is more, and varied, housing so that people of all income levels who work in Montgomery County and nearby can afford to live here, too, proponents say. The plan encourages more housing in areas near transit and major roads. It calls for denser development along the Route 29 corridor in Silver Spring and White Oak, and more multiuse development across the county, with a greater emphasis on getting residents from home to work to their neighborhood shops via walking, biking and public transit.
What’s its real-life impact?
200,000 The number of residents Montgomery County is projected to add over the next 30 years
1,111 Shortfall in number of active building permits vs. 4,200 recommended (Source: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments)
Thrive’s list of recommendations stands to shape nearly every aspect of county planning—from the location of parks in newly designed urban centers to the expansion of roads, bike trails and transit. But it’s unlikely that all of Thrive’s recommendations will be implemented, Albornoz admits. “What [Thrive] does…is set the stage for a more in-depth conversation on the facts,” he says.
One of the plan’s most controversial aspects is its call for “upzoning,” or zoning-law changes that would allow duplexes, triplexes and small apartment buildings to be developed in neighborhoods currently zoned for single-family housing.
Who stands to benefit?
“Hopefully everybody,” Albornoz says, “from the new family that wants to be able to purchase their first home…to the seniors who want to be able to downsize, [to] the businesses [in the county] that want to be able to grow.”
Plus, critics are quick to point out, developers who will have plenty of new opportunities to build (and profit) if Thrive’s recommendations are implemented.
What’s the backstory?
The county’s previous general plan was written in the 1960s, Albornoz says, though many revisions have been made over the years, including a major refinement in 1993. “The county has almost doubled its population since the last general plan was implemented,” says Albornoz, adding that the county now faces a housing crisis of near emergency proportions.
Who’s for it?
Most Montgomery County Democrats, according to a June 2022 poll by Data for Progress, a progressive think tank. It found that 55% of county Democrats—who outnumber Republicans nearly 4 to 1—expressed support for Thrive 2050, and 21% opposed it. The poll found the largest margin of support came from Black residents, those under 45 and renters.
Who’s against it?
County Executive Marc Elrich, for one: “I hate this plan,” he says, “because it was put out there originally as affordable housing. There’s not a thing in the plan that requires affordable housing. Nothing.”
Many longtime homeowners and civic groups also oppose the plan’s upzoning recommendations, concerned that property values of single-family homes will drop as multiunit dwellings are built nearby. Others worry that denser development in less affluent parts of the county will accelerate gentrification, displacing many low-income households. “We are [already] seeing the forced migration of working and low-income families around Montgomery County,” says Matt Losak, executive director of the Montgomery County Renters Alliance. “Thrive 2050 does little to outline specific protections for current residents who rent,” he says.
Some critics also have complained that Thrive 2050 puts too much emphasis on transit and not enough on roads. One home services contractor who spoke at a community forum last summer told the county planners, “I can’t bring my ladder on the Purple Line.”
What’s in it for me?
If you think we need more urban-style development to house the county’s growing population, you’ll likely agree with many of Thrive’s recommendations, and probably will support the zoning and other changes that will be necessary to implement them. If you are worried about a triplex possibly going up next to your single-family home, you may be in for a zoning fight.
Rent Stabilization
What is it?
Montgomery County has no law in place that regulates the amount of rent landlords can charge or limits the increases they can demand when tenants re-up. But the idea of rent stabilization, as supporters call it, is gaining traction. Will Jawando, an at-large member of the County Council and a proponent of rent stabilization, has been leading the charge on a bill to put before the council that would put a cap on rent hikes.
Elrich has said a plan under discussion would exempt development under construction. “And we’re debating for how long we’d exempt it,” he says. “It might exempt it for 10 years. You might exempt it for 15 years.”
What’s its real-life impact?
Opponents say that limiting what landlords can charge without considering all factors—such as the cost of maintaining buildings and owners’ ability to obtain loans for capital improvements—actually makes things worse for renters. The result, they argue, will be more poorly maintained buildings and a worsening housing shortage.
“Time and time again, rent control has proven to be a hit with voters and a failure in practice,” says Gabrielle Duvall, executive vice president and general counsel at Southern Management Cos., which owns 75 residential communities in Maryland and Virginia, including seven in Montgomery County that are considered “workforce housing.”
Southern Management recently chose not to develop a multiuse project in Montgomery County and built it in Fairfax County, Virginia, instead because of the “uncertain legislative atmosphere” here, Duvall says, foreseeing “an area … disincentivized for people to invest and build new.”
8,338
36,676
Number of applicants on waitlist for HOC aid programs (Source: Housing Opportunities Commission, 2023)
Jawando doesn’t think that’s likely to happen—Montgomery County is too desirable a market. Also, he says, a law that helps keep tenants from experiencing housing instability is good for everyone. “When we allow kids to grow up and families to stay in their homes…it’s better for the entire community,” he says. “It allows them to get jobs that are close to transit and take advantage of good schools and to be more upwardly mobile.”
Who stands to benefit?
Current renters, mostly, who make up 35% of county residents, according to County Council data.
What’s the backstory?
In the 1970s, Montgomery County implemented two rent control ordinances, and both times sale prices for apartment buildings fell substantially and virtually no new units were constructed or planned for development, according to a 2015 Towson University study. Following the expiration of the second rent control ordinance in 1981, apartment building property values increased substantially, the study found.
In 1980, the city of Takoma Park implemented its own rent control ordinance that is still in effect today. According to the Towson study, “Takoma Park multifamily property values remain stagnant as a result of the City’s ongoing rent control policy.”
Recently, the idea of countywide rent stabilization has grown in popularity as the number of renters and, in particular, low-income renters in the county has increased and the number of affordable rental units has not kept pace.
The COVID-19 pandemic has made the issue more urgent, Jawando says. After the August 2022 expiration of the temporary rent-hike freezes put in place during the pandemic, the Office of Landlord-Tenant Affairs received more than 100 complaints about sky-high rent hikes—a 200% increase in calls over 2019—Jawando says. Complainants, nearly all of them families, reported average rent increases of 22%, according to the county’s Department of Housing and Community Affairs.
What does research show?
In 2015, researchers at Towson University concluded that rent control measures in Montgomery County would cost the county $538.5 million over 10 years in lost property and income tax revenue. Rent control would result in “reductions in the property values of existing multifamily buildings and would in turn significantly decrease County property tax revenues and income tax revenues paid by multifamily property owners residing in the County,” the study found. Additionally, the study concluded, “many planned multifamily and mixed-use projects would not be developed, resulting in further losses of tax revenues and jobs.”
Several other studies, including one in 2019 from Stanford University that focused on San Francisco, produced similar findings. “While rent control prevents displacement of incumbent renters in the short run, the lost rental housing supply likely drove up market rents in the long run,” the study found.
A 2021 report out of the University of Minnesota, however, found “little empirical evidence” that rent control policies hurt housing quality—or that they discourage development because new construction is often excluded from rent-stabilization measures.
Who’s for it?
A lot of renters, of course. Elrich, Jawando and at least a few other councilmembers also support rent-stabilization laws as part of a larger-scale plan to address the need for more affordable housing in the county.
Who’s against it?
Councilmember Andrew Friedson and a long list of developers, lenders and landlords have publicly voiced skepticism. Friedson and others in this camp say they support anti-gouging laws, which would place a cap on rent hikes that are extreme. “We do have some bad actors in the county and in the state and the country who are trying to jack rents up like 30 to 40%,” adds Southern Management’s Duvall. “That shouldn’t be acceptable.”
What’s in it for me?
If you’re a renter in Montgomery County—or would like to be—the passage of rent-stabilization legislation would likely be welcome news. Earlier this month, competing bills were introduced to make that passage a reality. Advocates of rent stabilization are currently contemplating caps at or just above the rate of inflation and determining the number of years to exclude new development, according to those who have seen drafts of the legislation.
The Purple Line
What is it?
Once it’s finally up and running (the latest estimate is mid-2027), the Purple Line will be the only light rail line on the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority’s (WMATA) Metrorail system to connect Montgomery County with Prince George’s County without going through Washington, D.C. Passengers will be able to travel from downtown Bethesda to the Amtrak/MARC/Metro station in New Carrollton without battling Beltway traffic or changing rail lines at D.C.’s Metro Center.
With 21 stations along its 16.2-mile route, the Purple Line’s stops will include downtown Bethesda, Silver Spring and the University of Maryland’s College Park campus. “The Purple Line will provide an east-west option to reach these destinations in minutes that does not currently exist,” says Dave Abrams, the Purple Line’s director of communications for the Maryland Department of Transportation (MDOT) and the Maryland Transit Administration (MTA).
What will it do?
The Purple Line is expected to serve more than 65,000 riders a day, according to the MTA. That’s higher than the daily ridership of every existing Metrorail line except the Red Line, which carries nearly 100,000 riders a day on weekdays, according to WMATA.
It’s also expected to produce a boom in development around many of its stations. So far, much of that growth seems concentrated in Bethesda and Chevy Chase, says former County Councilmember Hans Riemer, a longtime supporter of the Purple Line. Riemer thinks more growth will happen in the eastern part of the county as the line moves toward completion.
What’s its housing impact?
17,000 Number of affordable housing units that the Purple Line Corridor Coalition hopes to maintain
27% Percentage of households living near the Purple Line corridor that earn less than $50,000 a year (Source: UMD National Center for Smart Growth/PLCC/Nicholas Finio)
Proponents say development along the Purple Line corridor will help make Montgomery County more environmentally sustainable by bringing new housing, green space and commercial development within walking distance of the Metro. But some are fearful that the planned urban-style development will replace much-needed affordable housing with expensive high-rises and fancy amenities that will displace many of the county’s most vulnerable residents.
Currently, nearly half of the workers who live near the Purple Line corridor earn less than $40,000 a year, and about 20% earn less than $15,000 a year, according to the Purple Line Corridor Coalition (PLCC), a public-private partnership out of the University of Maryland. “Without protections for affordable housing or affordable commercial spaces, one possible consequence of [the Purple Line] is the potential displacement of existing residents and businesses,” the coalition warned in September 2022.
Who stands to benefit?
“The whole region stands to benefit,” Riemer says. Right now, there are few convenient public transportation options for residents who live along large swaths of the Purple Line corridor, especially in eastern Montgomery County and much of Prince George’s County. To help existing residents stay in their homes as land prices inevitably rise, the PLCC reports that it has helped preserve 860 affordable housing units along the corridor and an additional 1,500 more are planned or under development.
“A large number of homes (7,000 or so) are already affordable through some form of government subsidy,” says Nicholas Finio, associate director and assistant research professor at the University of Maryland’s National Center for Smart Growth Research and Education. “Add those things together (already existing, recently created or preserved, planned construction) and we are about halfway to the goal” of 17,000, he says by email.
What’s the backstory?
When ground was broken on the Purple Line in 2017, it was expected to be operational by late 2022. Instead, battles over cost overruns ended with the initial contractor quitting and a $250 million settlement paid out of state coffers. Then the COVID pandemic hit and work on the project essentially came to a halt.
In January 2022, a new lead contractor was appointed—at an additional cost of $1.46 billion—yet a series of logistical and supply-chain issues have resulted in the project moving at a slower pace than hoped. In January, word got out that utilities work is expected to further delay the project by more than half a year.
With all the delays and complications, the Purple Line is now expected to cost close to $10 billion, nearly twice the $5.6 billion anticipated in earlier estimates (that includes a 30-year maintenance contract with the new lead contractor).
Where’s the fault line?
Many county planners say the Purple Line will result in improved access to activity centers, increased service for transit-dependent populations, traffic congestion relief, and economic development.
But some advocates, like Losak of the Renters Alliance, say that without rent stabilization, many of those who live near the Purple Line will be forced out of their homes. “We’re seeing it already,” Losak says, noting that some apartment buildings in Silver Spring have been sold recently, leaving tenants stuck with hefty rent increases. “Landlords are getting ready to reap the rewards of public investment.”
What’s in it for me?
The Purple Line is good news for those looking to move to the county, and for businesses hoping to expand here, not to mention that “getting from Bethesda or Silver Spring to College Park will be more convenient, whether you are attending classes or an athletic event,” says MDOT’s Abrams.
With more than two dozen transit-oriented developments planned or under construction along the Purple Line corridor, the county will be flush with newfound potential, Abrams says. As an example, he points to transit-oriented development like Chevy Chase Lake, which he says features more than 117,000 square feet of retail space, 466 apartments and 65 condominiums.
Still, those who are housing insecure may have limited options. “People don’t realize the cost of unstable housing,” Losak says. “It’s affecting our workforce; it’s affecting crime rates; it’s affecting safety-net costs.”
“There’s a way to achieve housing goals while at the same time [building] infrastructure,” Riemer counters. “The alternative, not having a Purple Line, that doesn’t help anybody.”